Forecasting the Number of Muslim Pilgrims Using Fuzzy Time Series

Research Area: Volume 5,Issue 1, Jan. 2016 Year: 2016
Type of Publication: Article Keywords: Fuzzy Time Series, Fuzzy Sets, Linguistic Variable, Time Invariant Model
Authors:
  • Mahmoud Elgamal
Journal: IJEIR Volume: 5
Number: 1 Pages: 66-72
Month: January
ISSN: 2277-5668
Abstract:
Pilgrimage of Muslims is considered the largest human gathering all over the world in which more than three millions move together through a very limited space in a short time period. The yearly number of pilgrims coming from outside Saudi Arabia, denoted by NPO for short, is more than two thirds of the total number of Pilgrims. Therefore forecasting the NPO is considered by Saudi Arabia as the most important indicator in determining the planning mechanism for future secure and comfortable pilgrimage seasons. The main objective of this article is to employ the fuzzy time series approach [1] to forecast the yearly series of NPO and to show that it gives better forecasts than BoxJenkins Procedures. In order to achieve our objective, the fuzzy time series method is used to forecast the future five observations and the results are compared with the results given by Shaarawy et. al [2].

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