National Per Capita Income and Expenditure Forecasts Based on the GM(1,1) Model

Research Area: Volume 10,Issue 6,Nov., 2021 Year: 2021
Type of Publication: Article Keywords: GM 1 1 Grey Forecasting, Weighted Sliding Average Method, National per Capita Income and Expenditure
Authors:
  • Zhenjing Di
  • Hui Xu
Journal: IJEIR Volume: 10
Number: 6 Pages: 272-279
Month: November
ISSN: 2277-5668
Abstract:
With the initial implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's economy has shown a good trend of “stable growth and steady improvement”, and the quality of life of the people has been steadily improving. Therefore, a reasonable forecast of the national residents’ per capita income and expenditure level can reflect China's economic strength, and help the relevant departments to accurately examine the trend of China's residents' average consumption level and formulate and adjust national economic plans according to the forecast results. This paper uses the initial grey forecasting model as the basis, and improves the model by using the weighted sliding average method, and applies the optimized model to forecast the per capita income and expenditure of the nation's residents, so as to provide a scientific basis for promoting the sustainable development of the national economy.

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